NewZoo Study Identifies Key to Early Access Success
The journey through Early Access has become a well-trodden path for many video game developers, offering a unique opportunity to engage with players, gather crucial feedback, and secure funding for ongoing development. Yet, the optimal length of this preliminary phase remains a critical question. Insights from a recent, extensive study by the respected analytics agency NewZoo shed light on this very topic, providing valuable data for both developers and players.
Over the past few years, the appeal of Early Access has grown significantly. What was once primarily a tool for smaller indie studios has now been embraced by larger AA and even AAA titles, exemplified by games like the critically acclaimed Baldur’s Gate III and survival hit Sons of the Forest. This approach allows development teams to build a community, iterate rapidly based on player input, and ultimately increase their game's chances of success upon full launch.
The Sweet Spot: 4 to 9 Months for Early Access
NewZoo's research focused on the correlation between a game's time spent in Early Access and the average number of new players it attracted after its official 1.0 release. The findings present a clear picture:
- Optimal Retention: Games that remain in Early Access for approximately 4 to 6 months show the best audience retention rates post-full release.
- Strong Performance Up to 9 Months: A positive trend in player acquisition is observed for titles that exit Early Access within a 9-month window.
- Significant Decline After 9 Months: Beyond the 9-month mark, the study indicates a consistent and steady drop in the number of players returning or joining after the full launch.
- Long-Term Challenges: Projects lingering in Early Access for more than 1.5 years (18 months) face considerably low chances of attracting a substantial new audience when they finally go gold.
The study did note a slight resurgence in player numbers for games exiting Early Access after 22-24 months, but NewZoo attributes this largely to the exceptional performance of specific titles like the vampire survival game V Rising and the tactical shooter Ready or Not, rather than a general trend.
Post-Release Growth is Rare for Extended Early Access Titles
NewZoo further highlighted that most games experience little to no growth after their 1.0 release compared to their Early Access performance, especially if their preliminary phase was lengthy. Only titles that conclude their Early Access within the first six months tend to see a meaningful boost in long-term popularity.
Of course, exceptions exist. Dave the Diver, for instance, spent 8 months in Early Access before its full launch and went on to attract over 1.5 million players. However, this level of success is uncommon; other titles with a similar 8-month Early Access period typically showed only minor growth post-release. This suggests that while Early Access can be a powerful tool, its effective use often hinges on a well-timed exit strategy, balancing development needs with market momentum.
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