The Shifting Landscape of Game Development
Industry veteran and former BioWare producer Mark Darrah believes that 2025 is poised to be an even tougher year for the gaming industry than the last. Despite this, he observes that companies continue to pursue live-service game models, even as players are clearly signaling a desire for different experiences.
In an interview with YouTube channel MrMattyPlays, Darrah noted that while 2024 saw a slight recovery with minor investments in studios and early projects, the current year remains unstable, with persistent funding challenges and widespread layoffs.
The Allure and Risk of Live Services
Darrah explained the undeniable appeal of live-service games for major publishers: successful titles like Fortnite generate immense revenue. Giants such as Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, and Sony are keen to have multiple such projects that they can rely on for consistent income. However, Darrah believes this model is not what players truly want.
“I don’t think any player truly wants the industry to look like that. From a business perspective, it would be great,” Darrah stated, adding that publishers could simply manage a handful of projects and replace a fading one with a new one. “I don’t want the industry to look like that. And I think people are already starting to show with their wallets that they don’t want it either.”
This sentiment is why the success of the French JRPG Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 is so significant. Developed on a relatively smaller budget but with evident passion and a compelling story, the game became a hit. Its success serves as a powerful signal that high-quality, engaging projects can thrive without enormous expenditures, aligning with player preferences.
Grand Theft Auto VI: The Ultimate Test
For Darrah, the true test for the industry will be the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. “Honestly, I think that [GTA 6’s success] will be the deciding factor,” he commented. “Ask me again after GTA 6 comes out, because… if it doesn’t sell 70, 80 million copies, or whatever GTA 5 sold, that will be a signal. But if it’s, you know, the most successful launch in history… we’ll see.” The implication is that GTA VI’s performance, particularly its potential influence on the live-service landscape (e.g., GTA Online 2), could either reinforce or challenge the current industry trends.
Darrah also highlighted the pressure on large public companies to achieve quarterly growth, despite game development cycles becoming increasingly longer. He observed many studios founded by veterans from AAA companies (like BioWare) that received significant investments but ultimately closed down when funds ran out.
Hope for the Future: Indie and AA Studios
Despite the challenges, Darrah sees a glimmer of hope in the likes of Clair Obscur, which, with external and less restrictive investment, managed to succeed. He suggests that this could be a blueprint for future industry growth.
“Perhaps this is the hope. Maybe we are in for a long recovery period, and perhaps many indie developers will transform into AA studios over the next five years, and then it is they who will form the new face of the AAA industry,” Darrah mused. This vision paints a future where smaller, more agile studios, driven by creative passion, could reshape the landscape of big-budget game development, moving away from a sole reliance on live-service models.
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